“The general is well aware that your division’s forecasts are worthless. However, they are required for planning purposes.” Kenneth Arrow, a Nobel Memorial Prize winner in 1972 who recently passed away in 2017, began his career in the Weather Division of the Army Air Force during World War II. His division was in charge of predicting future weather patterns. Given his economic and statistician background, he recommended to his general that his unit be disbanded because they were no better at predictions than historical averages for the day in question. As the quote above suggests, the division remained intact.
At the beginning of 2017, a common view among money managers and analysts was that the financial markets would not repeat their strong returns from 2016. Many cited the uncertain global economy, political turmoil in the US, implementation of Brexit, conflicts in the Middle East, North Korea’s weapons buildup, and other factors. The global equity markets defied their predictions, with major equity indices in the US, developed ex-US, and emerging markets posting strong returns for the year.
It is the Christmas season and families are exchanging wish lists for Christmas. As a father of 11-year old twins, my view of Christmas lists has been evolving as my kids have been getting older. Gone are the days of Emily and I suggesting “appropriate” ideas that just happen to make it onto their lists each year. These were great experiences in expectation management. Now, they are more independent and less willing to listen to our advice.
In honor of Richard Thaler, the recent winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, we thought a discussion on behavior finance would be timely and relevant. This field of study has provided great insight on how to better manage personal finances. We would be well served to understand some of his great insights into human behavior.
Much research has been done on humans and their love of stories. I am personally a big fan of stories. Concepts are easier for me to understand and remember if told through a story. However, stories also have their downsides.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets. The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
Some people believe diversification stops at our country’s borders. They believe US companies provide enough diversification. However, the data below shows that portfolios invested only in the US are increasingly missing out on many global investment opportunities. Making a prediction about a single country may bear more risk than taking a more globally diversified approach. “In God we trust; all others bring data.” – W. Edwards Deming
It is always an interesting time to be an investor. As we have discussed previously, people reading the investment news every day without the knowledge of some simple investment principles would be very overwhelmed. The investment jargon, fancy charts, and emotional wording can cause an investor’s blood pressure to rise quickly. It is fascinating to read about today’s investment world being especially “volatile”, “uncertain”, “risky”, and “unpredictable”. In our opinion, these words could describe markets every day.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the last quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets. The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
On March 29, 1999, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow) finished the trading day above 10,000 points for the first time since the index was first published in 1896.