2018 Forecasts

Maggie Mayer Education Savings Planning, Estate Planning, Financial Planning, Portfolio Management, Retirement Planning, Tax Planning, Uncategorized

“The general is well aware that your division’s forecasts are worthless. However, they are required for planning purposes.”

Kenneth Arrow, a Nobel Memorial Prize winner in 1972 who recently passed away in 2017, began his career in the Weather Division of the Army Air Force during World War II. His division was in charge of predicting future weather patterns. Given his economic and statistician background, he recommended to his general that his unit be disbanded because they were no better at predictions than historical averages for the day in question. As the quote above suggests, the division remained intact.

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